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Showing posts from September, 2016

ADB Raises Pakistan GDP Forecast Amid Modi's War Talk

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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has raised Pakistan's economic growth forecast for fiscal year 2017 (from July 2016 to June 2017) from 4.8% to 5.2%. The Bank also sees brighter outlook for the the entire South Asian region. However, the prospects of even a limited India-Pakistan war could derail the economies of the entire South Asia region. I hope that sanity will prevail in New Delhi to tone down its war rhetoric, abstain from escalation and maintain the current economic momentum.



ADB Forecast: 

"...assuming further improvement in energy supply and security, and likely recovery in cotton and other agriculture-the growth forecast (for Pakistan) for FY2017 is revised up to 5.2%", says the Asian Development Outlook 2016 Update released September 27, 2016.

The ADO which is launched annually in March and updated in September provides a comprehensive analysis of macroeconomic issues in developing Asia.

The ADB report says that "growth in Pakistan will outperform the ADO…

Bollywood Needs Pakistan Market to Grow Business

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Amid the Hindu Nationalists calls for sending Pakistani actors home, what is being overlooked is the fact that Bollywood needs Pakistan more than Pakistan needs Bollywood.  Why? Let me explain.

Pakistan is Bollywood's second biggest foreign market. Last year, Pakistan's box office receipts jumped by 28% while India's domestic box office collection fell 6.7%.

Decline in Bollywood's revenue at home is forcing the Indian movie industry to look to Pakistan for growth. Part of the Indian strategy is to feature Pakistani actors and artists in its productions to increase Bollywood's appeal to Pakistan's growing moviegoers market.

The money earned by Pakistani actors working in Bollywood is minuscule compared to the business Bollywood films are doing in the rapidly growing Pakistan market.



Bollywood ticket sales fell by 6.7% to INR 2,568 crore ($385m) from 2014’s total of  INR 2,754 crore (US$413), according to figures published by India's Business Standard. Alarme…

Does Trump Know India Sends More Illegals Than Mexico to US?

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Does Donald Trump, the anti-immigration Republican presidential candidate, know that India is now the biggest source of illegal immigrants entering the United States?



US visa is the most sought after visa in India. Those who get it celebrate with billboards. Those who don't find human smugglers to smuggle them into the United States. The preferred routes for illegal entry from India are through the Caribbean and Central America.

Many surveys conducted in India over the years indicate that millions of Indians want to leave India to settle abroad. A quick Google search for "Escape from India" produces nearly 100 million results.  Many Indians cite lack of opportunitypoverty and various forms of discrimination as the reasons for wanting to leave India.


The number of unauthorized immigrants born in India grew by about 130,000 from 2009 to 2014, to an estimated 500,000. Many unauthorized immigrants from these nations arrived with legal status and overstayed their visas, acc…

Pakistan Beats BRICs in Highly Cited Research

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Pakistan has emerged as the country with the highest percentage of Highly Cited Papers compared with the BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) in the last 10 years, according to Thomson Reuters. Pakistan has doe so despite the fact that its "R&D environment faced substantial economic challenges".

In a report titled "Pakistan: Another BRIC in the Wall", author Lulian Herciu says that Pakistan’s scientific productivity has quadrupled, from approximately 2,000 articles per year in 2006 to more than 9,000 articles in 2015. During this time, the number of Highly Cited Papers featuring Pakistan-based authors increased tenfold, from 9 articles in 2006 to 98 in 2015.

The author asserts that his report provides comparisons between Pakistan and BRIC nations taking a look at productivity and leveraging contextual indicators. His analysis points to the fact that Pakistan can be benchmarked with emerging and dynamic countries such as those in the BRIC (Brazil, Ru…

Pakistan's Motorcycle Sales Soar With Expanding Middle Class

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Pakistan's fiscal year 2015-16 saw production of motorcycles soar to a new high of over 2 million units. This represents a 16.5% surge from last year.  At the same time, passenger cars and light trucks sales rose to over 200,000 in fiscal 2016, a 20% jump over the same period last year.



Motorcycle Sales:

Rising motorcycle sales in Asia's developing nations like Pakistan are seen as a barometer of expanding middle class. It is, in part, attributed to rising incomes and availability of bank financing at historic low interest rates in the country.

As many as 2,071,123 motorcycles were manufactured during July-June (2015-16) compared to 1,777,251 units during July-June (2014-15), according to the latest data released by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) and reported by Pakistani media.



Car Sales:

In addition to the double digit increase in motorcycle sales, Pakistan also experienced 20% jump in sales of passengers cars, light commercial vehicles (LCVs), vans and jeeps. The total s…

Pakistanis Spending $3.5 Billion on Eid ul Azha in 2016

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Pakistanis are spending about $3.5 billion on Eid ul Azha this year, according to analysts. This includes $2.8 billion worth of livestock and another $700 million on clothes,  shoes, jewelry and various services. This amount represent a huge transfer of wealth from urban to rural population in the country.

Animal Sacrifice:

Eid al Adha commemorates the willingness of Prophet Ibrahim (Abraham) to sacrifice his most beloved son Ismail (Ismael) when asked to do so by God. It follows Hajj, the annual pilgrimage of Mecca by Muslims from around the world each year. Muslims believe that God had angels remove Ismael from under the knife of blindfolded Abraham and had him replaced by a lamb.

Economic Activity: 

The commemoration includes sacrifice of cows, goats, lambs and camels on Eid al Azha. This year, the media reports indicate that 4 million goats, 2.7 million cows, 800,000 lambs and 30,000 camels are being slaughtered in Pakistan on the occasion.

Using a conservative average price of $600…